Hey football fans, what better way to start a sports blog than with a championship preview?
At the beginning of this season (prior to the draft), I wanted to create a blog previewing/analyzing what the Saints need to do / should do / did / failed to do. (That's a whole lot of doing there).
I regret I didn't do that, but this season isn't over, so I still have time to "Finish Strong" as Drew Brees would say, and break down a lot of the keys to the game, and what the Saints need to do in order to bring home the Lombardi Trophy.
Key Matchups:
Both quarterbacks are playing at an exceptional level. They have pinpoint accuracy, great timing, and quick decision making. To say they are the key to victory is an over-statement. But this game will be decided based on how their teammates perform:
1) Saints Offensive Line v Colts Defensive Line:
When it comes to the middle of the line, the Saints own this matchup:
Saints interior: Jarhi Evans, 6-4, 318; Jon Goodwin, 6-3. 318; Carl Nicks, 6-5, 343
Colts interior: Antonio Johnson, 6-3, 310; Daniel Muir, 6-2, 312
Our "big uglies" are clearly larger than the Colts' DTs, and have proven to be extremely valuable, with two Pro-Bowl selections this year.
On the outside, this matchup was considered a bad one with Dwight Freeney v Jermon Bushrod. I disagree, even with Freeney healthy. First, with play-calling. The Saints employ boot-legs and guard pulls to sell the play-action many times. This means Brees rolls away from his blind-side, or one of the best guards in football (Evans) pulls to the left side of the formation, leaving Bushrod to block a DT or blitzing LB/safety.
John Stinchcomb v Robert Mathis will be a more important matchup. Mathis is extremely good at bull-rushes and utilizes spins sporadically. Meanwhile, Stinchcomb received a Pro-Bowl selection. I wouldn't be surprised if Mathis bats down a pass and gets a hand on a few passes. In fact, if Brees does get sacked, I would suspect the gentleman Robert M (hey, that's my name!) to get the credit.
2) Saints RBs/TEs v Colts LBs
When viewing the Football Outsiders' Offensive Efficiency rankings, the play of the line isn't as important as your other personnel, mainly due to the importance of runs/passes beyond the line of scrimmage (and how they value these plays). So, I'll utilize their rankings for the breakdowns of these personnel matchups.
The Saints' rushing offensive efficiency was 1st in the league, with a success rate of 17.5%. The Colts' rushing defensive eff. was 20th, with a success rate of the offense of 0%
I like the Colts' LB corps. Fast, tough, with good instincts. I like the Saints' RBs better, for the same reasons. Pierre Thomas was ranked 5th in FBO's RB ranks, with the highest DVOA for runners with 100 rushes (higher value per play, 25.9%) and 3rd highest success rate (56%). If FBO had a similar rank of defenses, the Colts would be pretty high. But the effectiveness of Pierre Thomas in the pass game and run game makes him a much valuable asset versus the Colts' LBs. That's without mentioning the potential explosion that Reggie Bush provides (30.6% DVOA).
3) Saints WRs/TEs v Colts DBs
The Saints' passing efficiency was 5th in the NFL (43.1% success rate), while the Colts' pass D was 14th with 3.4% success rate.
The matchup to look for is the Saints' starting two (Colston and either Henderson or Meachem) against the young, inexperienced, small corners for Indi (Hayden, 6-0, Powers, 5-9).
In DVOA rankings (50 catches on the year), Colston was 6th (25.3%), Meachem was 2nd (39.2%), and Henderson 24th (10.7%). Among TE's (25 catches), Shockey was 7th in DVOA (23.4%), while Dave Thomas, founder of Wendy's, was 20th (6.9%). Thomas' value comes in blocking, where he fills in as a fullback since Heath Evans' injury. This is critical if the Colts employ a blitz (which they do on occasion, but with Brees, it is not recommended).
4) Saints Defensive Line v Colts Offensive Line:
When it comes to the middle, the Saints again have a clear advantage. Take a look at the size difference:
Colts exterior: Ryan Diem, 6-6, 320; Charlie Johnson, 6-4, 305
Colts interior: Ryan Lilja, 6-2, 290; Jeff Saturday, 6-2, 295; Kyle DeVan, 6-2, 306
Saints exterior: Bobby McCray, 6'6, 260; Will Smith, 6'3, 282
Saints interior: Sedric Ellis, 6'1, 307; Remi Ayodele, 6'2, 318
In other words, the Saints' big boys in the middle are bigger than the Colts' big boys. This will prove well for stopping the run (whenever the Colts decide to do so), and for generating pass rush up the middle.
The tackles of the Colts' have been effective at protecting Manning, and I would think this continues. They both have excellent mechanics, and their footwork sets them up in front of opposing DEs to prevent bull-rushes or spins to be effective. The Saints lost a great DE in Charles Grant. What he doesn't put in the stat column, he makes up for in hidden plays. Bobby McCray is a glorified 3rd down specialist, and is easy to run against (which is why you'll see Shanle shadowing him on run downs). But since the Colts seldom run the ball, this shouldn't be an issue. Still, I can only see the D-line potentially get one sack, if that.
5) Saints LBs v Colts RBs/TEs
Dallas Clark is one of the best catching TEs in the game, but he's undervalued for his ability to run block, mainly because the Colts do not run the ball that often. Addai and Brown have been serviceable, but not very valuable.
The Saints' LB corps is a workman's group, with the solid play of Fujita and Shanle. Vilma is going to be the LB covering Clark, and has fared well against some of the best TE's in the game (Tony Gonzales, Kellen Winslow, Jason Witten to name a few).
The Colts' run efficiency is 22nd, with -3%. The Saints' run defense is 29th, with 7.7%. You would suspect that the biggest defect in the Saints' D is against the run, which will help the Saints, since the Colts aren't so great at running the ball.
6) Saints DBs v Colts WRs/TEs
This is the marquee matchup. How will the Saints' secondary handle the Colts' receivers. With FBO's stats, this is the best matchup of the night.
The Colts' passing efficiency is 6th, with 42.1% success. Meanwhile, the Saints' secondary (which many stats with show in the lower rankings) is 9th, with -4.1% success. This is mainly due to the outstanding play of Jabari Greer, Tracy Porter and Darren Sharper. The two bookend corners provide solid man to man coverage, and generate a lot of tipped passes or aren't thrown to. Sharper flocks to the ball and either tips the ball, hits the receiver to drop it, or picks it off. Roman Harper is fairly solid on TE coverage, and will get time covering Dallas Clark. However, I think Harper will be utilized more for blitzing (as he has done much better under Gregg Williams' scheme).
Reggie Wayne was 13th in DVOA (18.2%), Collie was 15th (15.8%) and Garcon was 43rd. However, when you watch when a shutdown corner covers Wayne (like Revis in the AFC Champ game), it opens up Garcon against 2nd and 3rd CBs on the depth chart. Dallas Clark was 8th in DVOA (22.3%), but 2nd in DVAR (value per player versus value per play).
Here's the projected man-to-man coverage:
Greer v Wayne - should be similar to Wayne's average performance against Revis.
Porter/Gay v Collie/Garcon - they move around the formation, which means they may get a mismatch against Gay, who lacks in deep coverage skills
Gay/Harper/Usama Young/Vilma v Clark - again, mismatches will be utilized by putting Clark in motion
If given the time, Manning will find the open man. If the Saints want to succeed against the pass, they need to keep Garcon and Clark from getting open downfield. The only problem? Methodical drives with 6-8yd completions left and right to Clark and Collie.
7) Special Teams Coverage
Ah yes, the matchup most commonly forgotten. With a team like the Colts, you forget about the return game because they have no true playmakers - no explosive player who can score anywhere on the field with the ball in their hand. All of their skill players are extremely efficient and do their job exceedingly well, and are decent athletes. Expect plenty of touchbacks from the booming leg of Thomas Moorstead.
On the flip-side, this may be an area of concern for the Colts. They have a lot of depth for solid tackling and general football-IQ. You would imagine their coverage scheme is sufficient to prevent big plays. They had their fair share of touchbacks, but allowed a handful of good return yardage. For the Saints, Courtney Roby proved to be a great asset as a KR before injuring his knee in the NFC Champ Game. Pierre Thomas came right back and flashed his skills (reminding people that before Roby, Thomas was the KR for the Saints). And then they're Reggie, who is hit or miss.
From FBO, the Colts' kickoff coverage ranks 14th with -2.1yds/kickoff. New Orleans is 17th in kick returns, with 1.2yds/return. Saints' kickoff coverage is much better, ranking 6th with -9.2yds/kickoff (mainly due to touchbacks). Colts rank 16th in kick returns, with 1.5yds/return.
In punts, Colts rank 20th in coverage with -1.2 yards/punt, while the Saints rank 33rd with -7.7yds/game. This is due to two factors - muffed punts and kicks downed inside the 10 yard line. FBO stats are weighted to circumstance, and with punt yardage, this is the case. Saints punting game is surprisingly poor, with a rank of 27th, with 7 yds/punt. This is mainly due to the two large punt returns against the Bucs (one returned for a TD), but you can't excuse poor execution. Colts rank 16th with 3.9yds/punt.
What's missing is the postseason - Reggie had the great returns against Arizona, then muffed one against the Vikings. Meanwhile, the Colts were business as usual. What does this mean? I'd say the numbers stay the same, but don't keep Reggie out of your mind, because the Colts' certainly won't.
Ways to Win:
Aside from the obvious keys to victory you're bound to hear from every "football expert", there are several specific things the Saints need to do. By obvious keys, I mean the following: Create turnovers on D, limit TOs on offense, score TDs in the Red Zone, limit TDs in the Red Zone, exploit a mismatch, and so on.
1) Sustain Drives
One of the things you will hear every egghead on TV say is "keep Manning/Brees off the field". Most will say this is done by running the ball, which isn't entirely true. If you look at a game like the Colts v Dolphins back in Week 2, Miami was successful at running the ball, and running the clock out. What they were unsuccessful at was sustaining drives. The Dolphins had field goal kicks of 45, 43 and 45 yards. That means that when the team got around the Colts' 30 yard line, they couldn't pick up a first down (to enter the mythical land known as the Red Zone). This was mainly due to the inability to throw the ball (which Miami improved later in the year).
One of the Saints' better traits is the ability to sustain drives. On several occasions during the year, the Saints were successful at converting downs over 8 yards. If the offense is unable to gain more than 2 yards on the 1st down, they still have the ability to gain the remaining yards on 2nd or 3rd down with some consistency. One of the things the Saints have done most recently is run the ball on 3rd and 5+ yards. Most defenses are geared for a pass beyond the first down marker. By running the ball, defensive lineman are going after the QB instead of the RB. Linebackers and safeties are falling back into coverage or blitzing, instead of picking up blockers and shooting gaps. This tactic has shown effective over the last two games, and I suspect the Saints will employ it with relative ease against a smaller D-line of the Colts.
2) Limit Underneath Throws
You'll hear a lot about how Manning is a "surgeon" and how Austin Collie is a poor-man's Wes Welker. What you won't hear is how the routes of the other Colts receivers allows for the success of Manning-to-Collie. The main reason Collie has such success (and Anthony Gonzales' success last year) is attributed to Dallas Clark. Clark will generally run three routes - a post, an in route across the formation, or an out route on play-action. These three routes almost exclusively are covered by linebackers. When they roll coverage Clark's way, it opens up intermediate routes to Collie, who runs drag routes, opposite routes of Clark (where they cross), or runs skinny posts. Both possess great vision and hands, and force the defense to cover one or the other.
The key to stopping this is two-fold: do not allow Manning a passing lane over the middle, and bumping the receivers at the line. As you can see from the matchups, the DTs of the Saints are much larger than the Colts' interior linemen. You can see why this matters when looking at how the Vikings' DTs affected Brees' vision and throws during the NFC Championship. With a strong push up front, it generally will force a QB backwards or to the side of the pocket. This matters when receivers such as Clark and Collie run various option routes. If they see the QB flushing out of the pocket, they will normally call off a specific route, and in turn change. Though Manning is one of the best at seeing receivers option a route, doing so on a continual basis will lead to inconsistencies. Second, by getting a push against Clark and Collie at the line, this "throws the timing off the receiver" (as you will hear time and time again), but it also creates enough of a delay in the route that forces the QB to hold the ball longer. With the rush that New Orleans has created over the last two games, Manning cannot afford to hold the ball longer than a 3 step drop.
3) Run the Ball on Third Down
I mentioned this earlier in the first point, but it bears repeating. Against Dallas, New Orleans completely stopped following the gameplan of running the football, and it cost the Saints their first defeat and a complete stop to their momentum. Against Arizona, it provided the foundation to all the deep throws that Brees is so accurate in throwing. One can argue that the Saints' run game was ineffective against the Vikings, but is that something unexpected? The Vikings are considered one of the best run-stopping defensive lines. They rarely use safeties and LB run-blitzes to stop the run, relying mostly on their D-line to stop the play. The Saints' run-game was effective against the Vikings because it opened up the Henderson TD catch (set up on play-action), and converted key 1st downs (especially towards the end of the game).
As seen in the key matchup section, the Saints' O-line has a distinct size advantage over the Colts' D-line, especially in the interior. On 3rd down, with a D-line of speed-rushers, how would you want to block them? With 300lb men falling backwards to pass block, or charging forward to run block? If the Saints can convert 3rd downs on rushing plays, the Colts' will be forced to either crowd the box with another safety, or send LBs on run-blitzes up the middle. If this happens, expect Shockey with post-patterns, Thomas with screens, or Henderson/Meachem over the top. We've seen how successful all of these options work, and it all starts with the run game.
Final Thoughts
This season has been an amazing ride for fans and the team. Simply reaching the Superbowl is enough for fans, but it isn't for the players. They started this year with the mentality that Brees is in the prime of his career, the pieces are all together, and if they stayed relatively healthy, this was their one good shot at winning a championship. They are sixty minutes away from that (assuming this isn't the first Superbowl to go to overtime).
Accuscore has the Colts winning 54% of the time, which should state the obvious - this will be a great game. If the Saints pass defense can intercept Manning at least once then the Saints have a 57 percent chance of winning. If the Colts commit two turnovers, the Saints improve to 61 percent. The Saints need to execute on defense and force bad throws by Manning. Daunting tasks, because it requires one of two difficult things - confuse him with coverage, or get hits on him. If the Colts commit less than two turnovers, the Colts have a 54 percent change of winning.
Meanwhile, the offense needs to protect the football and play error free. With Accuscore simulations, the Saints commit two turnovers in 52 percent of simulations. The Saints cannot make these mistakes.
It's easy to say from the comfort of my couch that the Saints need to do this or will do that. Ultimately, it comes to the determination, focus and drive of 52 talented athletes competing against 52 other determined men. I can't vouch for these men from all walks of life, but I know they will do their damnedest to bring the Lombardi Trophy home. Expect no less from this team.
